We quantify disagreement about the economy with ex-ante measures of divergence of opinion among economic forecasters and investigate if economic disagreement has a significant impact on the cross-sectional pricing of individual stocks. We find a significant disagreement premium of 7.2% per...

Contrary to the theoretical principle that higher risk is compensated with higher expected return, the literature shows that low-risk stocks outperform high-risk stocks. Using a large-scale household dataset, we provide an explanation for this puzzling result that the anomalous negative...

This paper studies the role of global and regional variations in economic activity and policy in developed world in driving portfolio capital flows (PCF) to emerging markets (EMs) in a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) framework. Results suggest that PCFs to EMs depend mainly on...

This paper studies the role of investors' optimism about future economic growth in their investment decisions. Based on simple intuition, we argue that investors base their future investment decisions not only on asset-specific information, but also on their expectations about future economic...

The objective of the study is to analysis portfolio returns and the performance of asset pricing models in the context of macroeconomic variables. Portfolios have been constructed on the basis of firms' size; two equally weighted decile portfolios and two value weighed decile portfolios...

We provide a simple rational bubble model demonstrating that a concentration of income is necessary and sufficient for the existence of equilibria with risky speculative bubbles. Income concentration among top earners leads to excess savings and depressed interest rates, which facilitate the...

Using a novel dataset consisting of daily futures prices going as far back as 1877, we find that returns of commodity futures indices have on average been positive over the long run. Though return premia are associated with both carry and spot returns, commodity returns in different economic...

Cross-region and cross-sector asset allocation decisions are one of the most fundamental issues in international equity portfolio management. Equity returns exhibit higher volatilities and correlations, and lower expected returns, in bear markets compared to bull markets. However, static...

A great proportion of stock dynamics can be explained using publicly available information. The relationship between dynamics and public information may be of nonlinear character. In this paper we offer an approach to stock picking by employing so-called decision trees and applying them to XETRA...