The purpose of this document is to outline the triumvirate investment paradigm as a strategic asset allocation blueprint for portfolio construction by categorizing assets into three distinct groups: Property, Business, and Country.This triumvirate taxonomy fits better within the economic context...

In this paper we investigate the predictive power of cross-sectional volatility, skewness and kurtosis for future stock returns. Adding to the work of Maio (2016), who finds cross-sectional volatility to forecast a decline in the equity premium with high predictive power in-sample as well as...

This paper demonstrates that the forecasted CAPM beta of momentum portfolios explains a large portion of the return, ranging from 40% to 60% for stock level momentum, and 30% to 50% for industry level momentum. Beta forecasts are from a realized beta estimator using daily returns over the prior...

We evaluate linear stochastic discount factor models using an ex-post portfolio metric: the realized out-of-sample Sharpe ratio of mean-variance portfolios backed by alternative linear factor models. Using a sample of monthly US portfolio returns spanning the period 1968-2016, we find evidence...

We create a market-wide measure of dispersion in options investors' expectations by aggregating across all stocks the dispersion in trading volume across moneynesses (DISP). DISP exhibits strong negative predictive power for future market returns and its information content is not subsumed by...

Stochastic processes is one of the key operations research tools for analysis of complex phenomenon. This paper has a unique application to the study of mean changing models in stock markets. The idea is to enter and exit stock markets like Apple Computer and the broad S&P500 index at good times...

The curvature of intramonth stock price paths, which is distinct from cumulative return over the same period, contains significant additional return predictive power. In the cross section, stocks with the least convex price paths subsequently outperform stocks with the most convex price paths....

Optimal investment of firms implies that expected stock returns are tied with the expected marginal benefit of investment divided by the marginal cost of investment. Winners have higher expected growth and expected marginal productivity (two major components of the marginal benefit of...