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What is the probability of high inflation; how high, when? These questions are important to all investors since even … characterizes this as The War On Savers. Higher inflation is possible, at 4% or more, with even worse effects. There are heated … debates about the probability and timing of high inflation, but our review of the extensive literature reveals no reliable way …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099903
This study revisits and tests empirically the Portfolio Theory of Inflation (PTI), which analyzes how the effectiveness … (Bossone, The portfolio theory of inflation and policy (in)effectiveness, 2019). The PTI shows that when an economy is heavily … and policies aimed to stimulate output growth dissipate into domestic currency depreciation and higher inflation, with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012140238
Based on the theory of static replication of variance swaps we assess the sign and magnitude of variance risk premiums …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010410031
Modelling and forecasting of asset volatility and covariance is of prime importance in the construction of portfolios. In this paper, we present a generalised multi-factor model that incorporates heteroskedasticity and dependence in the idiosyncratic error terms. We apply this model to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002082
A plethora of academic papers on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been published in academic journals. Yet few, if indeed any, of these are employed by practitioners. Previous academic studies produce results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292091
We establish the out-of-sample predictability of monthly exchange rate changes via machine learning techniques based on 70 predictors capturing country characteristics, global variables, and their interactions. To guard against overfitting, we use the elastic net to estimate a high-dimensional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012847704
taken by domestic agents. The Portfolio Theory of Inflation (PTI) developed in this study assumes that some critical … higher inflation, with limited or no impact on output. On the other hand, high credibility creates space for effective and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012012446
The Portfolio Theory of Inflation (PIT) proposed in this study investigates the role of global financial markets in … inflation to rise due to a large exchange rate pass-through, with limited or no impact on output. On the other hand, high … dissipated and higher inflation reflects such dissipation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011993031
inflation and interest rate expectations as well as a flight-to-safety during times of stress in financial markets. Based on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011745369
The Japanese zero-interest rate period provides a “natural experiment” for investigating the effectiveness and transmission channels of sterilized intervention when traditional monetary policy options are constrained. This paper takes advantage of the fact that all interventions in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038672