We describe a method to improve credit portfolio models based on the Merton model by adding to the underlying distributions forward-looking tails deducted through the Bayesian Networks technology. Given the forward-looking stance of the approach, its results give a better quanti ed picture of...

The concept of a market portfolio plays an important role in many financial theories and models. Knowledge of each asset's share of the invested capital markets is both useful information and a good starting point for investors considering the appropriate allocation to the asset. In our latest...

A closet indexer is more likely to meet a value-weighted investment benchmark by value-weighting the portfolio. Following this intuition, we introduce a simple measure of active management, the absolute difference between the value weights and the actual weights held by a fund, averaged across...

Questions about Government regulation and agency issues are inherent in political economy as both relate to the operation of markets. Government is involved in setting the rules of the game, so to speak, and agency questions necessarily arise in those organisations where ownership is separated...

This note discusses FX reserves management as practised by emerging market economies and, more specifically, by Saudi Arabia. It shares the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority's experience on reserve adequacy, investment objectives, philosophy and process, portfolio tranching, risk management and...

I investigate whether or not the multi-period trades of financial institutions cause mispricing in the stock market. After controlling for the magnitude and trends in institutional trades, I find evidence consistent with institutional trades pushing prices away from fundamentals. Stocks heavily...

This paper evaluates the model risk of models used for forecasting systemic and market risk. Model risk, which is the potential for different models to provide inconsistent outcomes, is shown to be increasing with market uncertainty. During calm periods, the underlying risk forecast models...

Constructing a multi-asset portfolio with a constraint of tail risk aversion is challenging because (1) the individual asset classes have poor tail risk characteristics and (2) diversification between asset classes is minimal. A better portfolio can be achieved using a multi-strategy framework...