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We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010226098
Many asset pricing theories treat the cross-section of returns volatility and correlations as two intimately related … quantities driven by common factors, which hinders achieving a neat definition of a correlation premium. We formulate a model … returns: an average correlation premium. This premium is both statistically and economically significant, and considerably …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012421289
strong performance for VIX futures selling or VIX call writing strategies. However, the high volatility of volatility and … selling of VIX instruments could have substantial volatility jump risk exposure which can result in economically meaningful … buys VIX calls – had lower volatility and less severe maximum drawdowns than the stock and commodity benchmark indexes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012870103
Sellers of variance swaps earn time-varying risk premia for their exposure to realized variance, the level of variance swap rates, and the slope of the variance swap curve. To measure risk premia, we estimate a dynamic term structure model that decomposes variance swap rates into expected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011523781
This paper decomposes the risk premia of individual stocks into contributions from systematic and idiosyncratic risks. I introduce an affine jump-diffusion model, which accounts for both the factor structure of asset returns and that of the variance of idiosyncratic returns. The estimation is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011410917
I generalize the long-run risks (LRR) model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) by incorporating recursive smooth ambiguity aversion preferences from Klibanoff et al. (2005, 2009) and time-varying ambiguity. Relative to the Bansal-Yaron model, the generalized LRR model is as tractable but more flexible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012617667
This paper studies the intertemporal relation between U.S. volatility risk and international equity risk premia. We … show that a common volatility risk factor constructed from the option-implied U.S. forward variances positively and … robust to the inclusion of existing domestic and U.S. predictors and alternative U.S. volatility risk proxies. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236052
considered effective equity diversifiers also faced precipitous losses. In stark contrast, volatility levels as measured by VIX … focus on the latter part of 2008. While a long volatility exposure may result in negative excess returns over the long term …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012906250
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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011795595