This paper examines real-time applications of quickest disorder detection techniques for timing stock markets. The focus is on the stochastic disorder model by Shiryaev, Zhitlukhin, and Ziemba (2014, 2015), Zhitlukhin and Ziemba (2016) and their optimal stopping rule. The model uses sequential...

This paper develops a new approach to explain why risk factors constructed from option returns are priced in the stock market. We decompose an option- based factor into three main components and identify the one responsible for the beta-return relationship. Applying this method to the bear risk...

Portfolio sorting is ubiquitous in the empirical finance literature, where it has been widely used to identify pricing anomalies in different asset classes. Despite the popularity of portfolio sorting, little attention has been paid to the statistical properties of the procedure or to the...

Sellers of variance swaps earn time-varying risk premia for their exposure to realized variance, the level of variance swap rates, and the slope of the variance swap curve. To measure risk premia, we estimate a dynamic term structure model that decomposes variance swap rates into expected...

In this paper we investigate sources and characteristics of value, size and momentum profits on the Polish stock market. The research aims to broaden the academic knowledge in a few ways. First, we deliver fresh out-of-sample evidence on value, momentum, and size premiums. Second, we analyzemthe...

The aim of this paper is to investigate the momentum effect in country-level anomalies in global equity markets. By using a sample of 78 countries for the period from 1995 to 2015, we test a set of potential 40 cross-sectional inter-market anomalies, some of which had never been examined before....

Taking into account expected return characteristics like firm size and book-to-market in the selection of winners and losers helps to ex ante separate stocks with momentum from those that exhibit reversal in international equity markets. A strategy that buys small value winners and sells large...

Despite momentum's strong historical performance, its returns have large negative skewness and occasionally experiences persistent strings of sharp negative returns, referred as "momentum crashes" in the recent literature. I argue that momentum crashes are due to crowded trades which push prices...

Employing asset-pricing models over the period 2012 to 2017, this study examines whether a search attention index (SAI) explains the variation in the weekly excess return of stocks. The study finds that the estimated abnormal return of a portfolio based on search intensity is significantly high...