This paper puts forward an alternative approach to multiplicative models and their assessment of returns out of financial assets. Firstly, it lays down an operative definition but also sets forth a commutative framework of mappings to provide foundations to such a definition. Next, the total...

We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...

The aim of this paper is to investigate long-term portfolio management in a fully structural macro- financial framework. First, we estimate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that describes the dynamic of the US economy and financial markets. In addition to the typical...

We report strong evidence that changes of momentum, i.e. "acceleration", defined as the first difference of successive returns, provide better performance and higher explanatory power than momentum. The corresponding Γ-factor explains the momentum-sorted portfolios entirely but not the reverse....

Average skewness, which is defined as the average of monthly skewness values across firms, performs well at predicting future market returns. This result still holds after controlling for the size or liquidity of the firms or for current business cycle conditions. We also find that average...

We build a macroeconomic model for Switzerland, the Euro Area, and the USA that drives the dynamics of several asset classes and the liabilities of a representative Swiss (defined-contribution) pension fund. This encompassing approach allows us to generate correlations between returns on assets...

In this paper, we document evidence that downside betas tend to comove more than upside betas during a financial crisis, but upside betas tend to comove more than the downside betas during financial booms. We find that the asymmetry between Downside-Beta Comovement and Upside-Beta Comovement is...

Our objective in this paper is to examine whether one can use option-implied information to improve the selection of mean-variance portfolios with a large number of stocks, and to document which aspects of option-implied information are most useful for improving their out-of-sample performance....

The authors explore the risk-return properties of simple momentum strategies in six major government-bond markets and find that trend-following investment rules generate positive information ratios in the 1987-2011 sample period. They simulate the combination of momentum portfolios with...

The authors revisit the case for maintaining a strategic overweight to corporate bonds in fixed income portfolios based on the notion of the credit risk premium. Using a series of excess returns to investment-grade corporate bonds going back to 1926, the authors find evidence of a positive risk...