Fund trades and prices vary systematically with the quarterly reporting cycle. Funds are more likely to complete the building of a position at quarter-end, which is when most funds report positions to investors, and begin building new positions afterwards. While some of the observed shift in...

This study reveals the information content of individual investors' risk-adjusted return expectations. Although individual investors overestimate the performance of their stock purchases on average, the cross-sectional variation in their risk-adjusted return expectations is predictive of future...

Individual investors have an incredible variety of sources for investment guidance. These include internet blogs, financial publications, books, newsletters and, of course, television shows. We examine a relatively new but widely popular source of investment advice, buy and sell recommendations...

Discount rates affect stock prices directly via the discount-rate channel or indirectly via the cash-flow channel because expected future cash-flow growth varies with the discount rates. The traditional Macaulay duration captures the effect from the discount-rate channel. I propose a novel...

This paper documents a significantly negative cross-sectional relation between left-tail risk and future returns on individual stocks trading in the U.S. and international countries. We provide a behavioral explanation to this anomaly based on the idea that investors underestimate the...

Using a large panel of U.S. accounts trades and positions, we show that retail investors trade as contrarians after large earnings surprises, especially for loser stocks, and such contrarian trading contributes to post earnings announcement drift (PEAD) and momentum. Indeed, when we double-sort...

We study the effect of parameter uncertainty on the long-run risk of three alternative asset classes: equity, nominal bonds and short-term T-Bills. We estimate the long-run risk as the annualized predictive variance of returns at different horizons implied by a vector autoregression using...

In this paper we consider two cases of pairs trading strategies: a conditional statistical arbitrage method and an implicit statistical arbitrage method. We use a simulation-based Bayesian procedure for predicting stable ratios, defined in a cointegration model, of pairs of stock prices. We show...