target of the Federal Reserve, along with near 0% interest rates, for a risk free rate of -2%. This guarantees portfolio … erosion absent risk-taking, which could result in even lower returns if the risks of loss are realized. An AARP article … higher inflation is unlikely until the economy strengthens, but that it remains a risk until deleveraging has occurred by …

their return. What is NOT factored is any measure of RISK or “risk premium”, or supply and demand “imbalances” – and yet …, the models perform extremely well empirically and theoretically using only public, real-time data. Adding risk and supply …

changes in global risk (VIX). We find that inertia (whether the bond behaved as a safe asset in the past) and good … on whether the change in global risk is driven by financial shocks rather than by US monetary policy. …

popular Epstein-Zin-Weil recursive preferences as special cases. Besides providing a model uncertainty rationale to these risk …-Zin-Weil preferences yield comparable market prices of risk for given detection error probabilities. …