Long term investments in bonds offer known returns, but with risks corresponding to defaults of the underwriters. The excess return for a risky bond is measured by the spread between the expected yield and the risk-free rate. Similarly, the risk can be expressed in the form of a default yield,...

This paper outlines a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy that takes signals from the credit markets and applies them to the stock market. A power model is built using the Russell 2000 equity index and the Bank of America/Merrill Lynch High Yield B index. This model is then used in a...

Ever since Harry Markowitz published his seminal paper on portfolio selection, investors have incorporated estimates of future volatilities and correlations into their asset allocation process. While portfolio construction methods continue to evolve, many investors continue to forecast...

In recent years both equity and bond markets have been afflicted by high volatility. In order to build up a portfolio on a quantitative basis, several models may be used, such as minimum variance portfolio or equally weighted portfolio. In 2008/09 another way to deal with diversification came...

In this paper we derive analytic formulae for statistical arbitrage trading where the security price follows an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. By framing the problem in terms of the first-passage time of the process, we derive expressions for the mean and variance of the trade length and the...

This article addresses the problem of portfolio construction in the context of efficient hedge fund investments replication. We propose a modification to the standard à la Sharpe “style analysis” by introducing a constraint on the asset weights 1-norm and 2-norm. This constraint regularizes...

This paper establishes some enlightening connections between the explicit formulas of the finite-time ruin probability established by Ignatov and Kaishev (2000, 2004) and Ignatov et al. (2001) for a risk model allowing dependence. The numerical properties of these formulas are investigated and...

In this paper we consider a parametric Weibull mixture cure model for modeling time to default on a personal loan portfolio in presence of disproportionate hazard rate. The main contribution of this paper is to evidence that mixture cure models are appropriate for non proportional sceneries,...

Aim of this research paper it to develop an alternative model for portfolio credit risk to those widely used - CreditRisk+ and CreditMetrics. The model aspires to patch the usual weak points of portfolio credit models and also is easy to implement. General engine relies on one-factor copula...