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earnings forecast accuracy, as forecast accuracy may be a signal of decreased price impact of trades and increased profit … trading opportunities. We predict a negative association between ownership by dedicated investors and earnings forecast … forecast accuracy is not relevant for the investment decisions of quasi-indexers.Our empirical evidence suggests that transient …
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This paper focuses on portfolio risk forecasting in an asymmetrical framework. Risk is defined by two factors; the dependence structure and the volatility. In order to account for asymmetric dependencies, the return series' interdependence is estimated via a Copula approach rather than the...
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accuracy of default rate forecasts, and (ii) whether forecast downturn percentiles (Value-at-Risk, VaR) are sufficient to cover … default rate outcomes over a quarterly and an annual forecast horizon.Uninformative maximum likelihood and informative … analyzes models based on auto-regressive adjustments of scores, which provide a higher forecast accuracy. The consideration of …
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% (5%) level, from a total of 895 stocks. These statistical forecast improvements also translate into considerable economic …
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's information set for the myopic stock-bond portfolio. In-sample I find that the best forecast of the volatility and correlation is …
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With the exception of naive methods for portfolio selection, such as the equal weighted approaches, all other methods of portfolio allocation are more or less sensitive to the quality of the inputs considered in constructing the models and risk measures utilised in the allocation framework. The...
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