In pharmaceutical R&D, decision makers face a large portion of uncertainty in portfolio decisions. Existing optimization tools are mostly based on expected values, ignoring uncertainty, and most often deliver a single, "best" selection of projects. A decision tree approach can aid decision...

We analyze the financial performance of a hypothetical portfolio of 120 mRNA vaccine candidates in the preclinical stage targeting 11 emerging infectious diseases. We calibrate the simulation parameters with input from domain experts in mRNA technology and an extensive literature review. We find...