Value at risk (VaR) has become a standard measure of portfolio risk over the last decade. It even became one of the corner stones in the Basel II accord about banks' equity requirements. Nevertheless, the practical application of the VaR concept suffers from two problems: how to estimate VaR and...

We have compared the performance of savings plans within the class of difference capital guarantee mechanisms: from the stop loss to classic investments in actuarial reserve funds. CPPI strategies with different leverage factors can be viewed as a compromises between these two extremes. In...

In this paper, a model of bounded rational investors investing their portfolio in a passive investment vehicle (e.g., an Exchange Traded Fund replicating a broad index) or an actively managed fund is presented. The model proposes that the quick reswitching of these short-term oriented investors...

An intensive and still growing body of research focuses on estimating a portfolio’s Value-at-Risk.Depending on both the degree of non-linearity of the instruments comprised in the portfolio and thewillingness to make restrictive assumptions on the underlying statistical distributions, a...

Several Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time series....

We solve for the optimal portfolio allocation in a setting where both conditional correlation and theclustering of extreme events are considered. We demonstrate that there is a substantial welfare loss indisregarding tail dependence, even when dynamic conditional correlation has been accounted...

This paper develops a new methodology for simulating fixed-income return distributions. It is shown that a traditional factor risk model, when augmented with reference returns, is capable of generating visually consistent return distributions for a broad range of fixed income instruments such as...

Bei der Kreditrisikobewertung müssen die Parameter Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit und korrelation geschätzt werden. Diese Schätzung erfolgt unter Unsicherheit. In der Literatur werden asymptotische Konfidenzregionen diskutiert, um diese Unsicherheit bei der simultanen Schätzung beider Parameter...

Die Bewertung der Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeiten von Ratingklassen, basierend auf historischen Daten, ist mit Schätzunsicherheit verbunden. Zur Bewertung dieser Unsicherheit werden in der Literatur Konfidenzintervalle diskutiert. Diesen liegen allerdings Annahmen bezüglich der Abhängigkeiten...

The specification of prior parameters is a common practical problem when implementing Bayesian approaches to portfolio optimization. The precision parameter of the prior on the expected asset returns reflects the confidence of the investor in the prior knowledge. Within the framework of the...