In this study we confirm the existence of sizable momentum, carry and low-volatility factor premiums in the commodity market, and argue that investors should consider these commodity factor premiums when determining their strategic asset allocation. We find that diversified portfolios of...

In this study we confirm the existence of sizable momentum, carry and low-volatility factor premiums in the commodity market, and argue that investors should consider these commodity factor premiums when determining their strategic asset allocation. We find that diversified portfolios of...

This paper examines the performance of a naïve equally weighted buy-and-hold portfolio and optimization-based commodity futures portfolios for various lookback and holding periods using data from January 1986 to December 2018. The application of Monte Carlo simulation-based mean-variance and...

This paper investigates the seasonality patterns within various asset classes. We find that a strategy that buys the assets with the largest same-calendar-month past average returns (up to ten years) and sells the assets with the smallest same-calendar-month past average returns, earns...

We find out-of-sample predictability of commodity futures excess returns using forecast combinations of 28 potential predictors. Such gains in forecast accuracy translate into economically significant improvements in certainty equivalent returns and Sharpe ratios for a mean-variance investor....

While much is known about the financialization of commodities, less is known about how to profitably invest in commodities. We develop a four-factor asset pricing model of commodity returns. Our four-factor model prices both commodity spot and term risk premia in an intuitive manner related to...

A dynamic model featuring a stochastic technology frontier shows significant impact of technology adoption for asset prices. In equilibrium, firms operating with old capital are riskier because costly technology adoption restricts their flexibilities in upgrading to the latest technology, making...

We develop a dynamic model with time variation in external equity financing costs and show that variation in these costs is important for the model to quantitatively capture the joint dynamics of firms' asset prices, real quantities, and financial flows in the U.S. economy. Growth firms and high...

I generalize the long-run risks (LRR) model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) by incorporating recursive smooth ambiguity aversion preferences from Klibanoff et al. (2005, 2009) and time-varying ambiguity. Relative to the Bansal-Yaron model, the generalized LRR model is as tractable but more flexible...

This essay explores the link between the exponential probability density function and the present value function coupled with moment theory to derive important non probabilistic parameters from the Present value function in which are then used to derive a measure of the volatility of interest...