It is now an accepted fact that the majority of financial markets worldwide are neither normal nor constant, and South Africa is no exception. One idea that can be used to understand such markets and has been gaining popularity recently is that of regimes and regime-switching models. In this...

I compute economic gains for a power utility investor from taking business cycle dependent return predictability into account. Recent studies show that stock returns are only predictable in recessions, and bond returns are only predictable in expansions. I examine whether this finding can be...

This paper extends the project initiated in and studies a lifecycle portfolio choice problem with borrowing constraints and finite retirement time in which an agent receives labor income that adjusts to financial market shocks in a path dependent way. The novelty here, with respect to, is the...

We present a robust version of the life-cycle optimal portfolio choice problem in the presence of labor income, as introduced in Biffis, Gozzi and Prosdocimi and Dybvig and Liu. In particular, in the influence of past wages on the future ones is modelled linearly in the evolution equation of...

In this paper we develop a job portfolio model of dual job holding based on a Stone-Geary utility function. We derive the associated Slutsky equation components. Because the job portfolio model applies only to unconstrained dual jobholders, we separate individuals who moonlight because of an...

In this paper we develop a job portfolio model of dual job holding based on a Stone-Geary utility function. We derive the associated Slutsky equation components. Because the job portfolio model applies only to unconstrained dual jobholders, we separate individuals who moonlight because of an...

In this paper we use a reduced form model for the analysis of Portfolio Credit Risk. For this purpose, we fit a Dynamic Factor model, DF, to a large dataset of default rates proxies and macro-variables for Italy. Multi step ahead density and probability forecasts are obtained by employing both...

We examine the impact of temporal and portfolio aggregation on the quality of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts over a horizon of ten trading days for a well-diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds and alternative investments. The VaR forecasts are constructed based on daily, weekly or biweekly...

Inter-temporal risk parity is a strategy that rebalances risky assets and cash in order to target a constant level of ex-ante risk over time. When applied to equities and compared to a buy-and-hold portfolio it is known to improve the Sharpe ratio and reduce drawdowns. We apply inter-temporal...

The performance of dynamic trading and investment strategies can be difficult to predict. Although not without its problems, analysis of the historical performance of a strategy can provide valuable insight into its general risk and return properties. Furthermore, historical analysis allows one...