We start by documenting large differences in bitcoin prices across exchanges located in different countries, or for different fiat currency pairs. For the most reputable exchanges, and after carefully accounting for all the transaction costs and limitations to trade, we find that costly...

In his Berkshire Hathaway annual newsletter to investors c.20 years ago, Warren Buffett while discussing the Long Term Capital Management LTCM and Enron collapses, famously called derivatives: "financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially...

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the diversification role of currency momentum for carry trade crashes during the turbulent periods surrounding the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. The motivation is to use an important tendency of...

This paper provides an empirical investigation of transmission channels of central bank foreign exchange intervention when interest rates are zero and traditional monetary policy options are constrained. The paper develops empirically testable hypotheses regarding the functioning of the...

The Japanese zero-interest rate period provides a “natural experiment” for investigating the effectiveness and transmission channels of sterilized intervention when traditional monetary policy options are constrained. This paper takes advantage of the fact that all interventions in the...

In the course of eurozone exit, the underlying stocks of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) would be redenominated from euros into the new national currency. We exploit ADR investors' exposure to currency redenomination losses to derive a novel measure of eurozone exit risk. We find that while...

This work studies the information content of trades in the world's largest over-the-counter(OTC) market, the foreign exchange (FX) market. It analyses a novel, comprehensiveorder flow dataset, distinguishing amongst different groups of market participantsand covering a large cross-section of...

Based on the theory of static replication of variance swaps we assess the sign and magnitude of variance risk premiums in foreign exchange markets. We find significantly negative risk premiums when realized variance is computed from intraday data with low frequency. As a likely consequence of...

DeMiguel, Garlappi, and Uppal (Review of Financial Studies, 22 (2009), 1915-1953) showed that in the stock market, it is difficult for an optimized portfolio constructed using mean-variance analysis to outperform a simple equally-weighted portfolio because of estimation error. In this paper, we...

We establish the out-of-sample predictability of monthly exchange rate changes via machine learning techniques based on 70 predictors capturing country characteristics, global variables, and their interactions. To guard against overfitting, we use the elastic net to estimate a high-dimensional...