Mutual fund flows are negatively related to fund performance more than about five years prior. This finding holds for both institutional and retail share classes, and across fund style categories. We develop and test the investor disappointment hypothesis, which holds that those who forecast...

This paper presents an option positioning that allows us to infer forward variances from option portfolios. The forward variances we construct from equity index options help to predict (i) growth in measures of real economic activity, (ii) Treasury bill returns, (iii) stock market returns, and...