In the U.S., the geometric return on stocks has been higher than the geometric return on bonds over long periods. We study whether balanced portfolios have a larger geometric return (and expected log return) than stock portfolios when the risk premium is low. We use a theoretical model and...

This paper examines the macro-spanning hypothesis for bond returns in international markets. Based on a large panel of real-time macro variables that are not subject to revisions, wefind that global macro factors have predictive power for bond returns unspanned by yield factors.Furthermore, we...

We show that firms' idiosyncratic volatility obeys a strong factor structure and that shocks to the common factor in idiosyncratic volatility (CIV) are priced. Stocks in the lowest CIV-beta quintile earn average returns 5.4% per year higher than those in the highest quintile. The CIV factor...

How does sovereign risk affect investors' behavior? We answer this question using a novel database that combines sovereign default probabilities for 27 developed and emerging markets with monthly data on the portfolios of individual bond mutual funds. We first show that changes in yields do not...

This research note examines the conditions which will induce a prospect theory type investor, whose reference level is set by 'playing it safe', to invest in a risky asset. The conditions indicate that this type of investor requires a large equity premium to invest in risky assets. However, once...

Does heterogeneity matter for asset pricing? Starting with an irrelevance result, I classify the literature into two groups of papers taking different routes to make heterogeneity relevant for asset prices. The first group discusses models of investors who differ in terms of their preferences,...

Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds ofdifferent maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rateenvironment by estimating a market stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and thereforeconsistent with the...

We disentangle U.S. credit spreads' evolution into two distinct parts resulting from market risk and default risk influences. We consider credit spreads (versus Treasury yields) as a credit risk proxy and S&P500 stock index as a market/systematic risk proxy. Such data allow for achieving a...

This paper will cover investing in commodities through futures contracts. It will note the unique sources of risk and return for such investments. We will also discuss the factors that one should take into consideration before deciding upon how much of their portfolio should be in commodities....