This paper analyzes the persistence or serial correlation of expected returns as well as the univariate time-series approach that studies the implied autocorrelation function of realized stock returns, including mean reversion and its conditions. In particular, we critically examine whether...

This paper uses statistical model selection criteria and Avramovs (2002) Bayesian model averaging approach to analyze the sample evidence on stock market predictability in the presence of model uncertainty. Based on Swiss stock market data, our posterior analysis finds that neither the...

Current discussions about public and private pension plans often include a statement that thestock market is less risky in the long run than in the short run. Pension plans with their ratherlong planning horizon are therefore asked to increase their allocation to the stock market.These...