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The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity over the business cycle : evidence from a threshold VAR analysis

Baum, Anja; Koester, Gerrit B. - 2011

Does the state of the business cycle matter for the effects of fiscal policy shocks on GDP? This study analyses quarterly German data from 1976 to 2009 in a threshold SVAR, expanding the SVAR approach by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). In a linear benchmark SVAR, the analysis finds that hiking...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008936115

RGAP: output gap estimation in R

Streicher, Sina - 2022

Assessing potential output and the output gap is essential for policy-making and fiscal surveillance. The European Commission proposes a production function methodology that involves the estimation of two classes of Gaussian state space models. This paper presents the R package RGAP which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013256541

Implications of output gap uncertainty in times of crisis

Bouis, Romain; Cournède, Boris; Christensen, Ane Kathrine - 2012

This paper analyses the monetary and fiscal policy implications of output gap estimates in times of crisis. The widening of output gaps observed in major OECD economies in the wake of the recent crisis has been mainly due to total factor productivity gaps, except in the United States where it...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009690945

The Performativity of Potential Output : Pro-Cyclicality and Path Dependency in Coordinating European Fiscal Policies

Heimberger, Philipp - 2016

This paper analyzes the performative impact of the European Commission's model for estimating ‘potential output', which is used as a yardstick for measuring the ‘structural budget balance' of EU countries and, hence, is crucial for coordinating European fiscal policies. In pre-crisis years,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012978348

Behebung eines Webfehlers : wie die Konjunkturkomponente demokratisch legitimiert und nachhaltiger werden könnte

Schuster, Florian; Sigl-Glöckner, Philippa - In: Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik 102 (2022) 11, pp. 826-829

The optimisation of the cyclical adjustment procedure under the German debt brake should focus on how to contribute to a democratically legitimate and sustainable fiscal policy. In this article, we discuss four criteria that should be satisfied: The method must (i) be sufficiently determined,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013455734

The European Commission's new NAIRU : does it deliver?

Gechert, Sebastian; Rietzler, Katja; Tober, Silke - 2014

The NAIRU is a key component of potential output and as such critically affects output gap estimates. In May 2014, the … European Commission changed its specification of the NAIRU for several countries and lowered its NAIRU estimates - in the case … of Spain from 26.6% to 20.7% for 2015. To test the dependence of the new NAIRU on unemployment versus structural factors …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010458229

Inflexibilität des Arbeitsmarktes oder falsche makroökonomische Politik für deutsche Wachstumsschwäche und Arbeitslosigkeit verantwortlich?

Niemeier, Ernst - In: Labor markets and labor market policies between …, (pp. 243-267). 2010

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008860439

How the baby boomers' retirement wave distorts model-based output gap estimates

Wolters, Maik H. - 2016

Hours per capita measures based on the private sector as usually included in the set of observables for estimating macroeconomic models are affected by low-frequent demographic trends and sectoral shifts that cannot be explained by standard models. Further, model-based output gap estimates are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434261

Estimating Malaysia's Output Gap : Have We Closed the Gap?

Shahrier, Nur Ain - 2019

The concepts of potential output and output gap are central to the policymakers' analytical work in providing guidance to policy decisions. This paper presents three different estimation approaches for the Malaysian economy, namely, the univariate, multivariate and structural models. While the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868928

How the baby boomers' retirement wave distorts model-based output gap estimates

Wolters, Maik H. - 2018

The paper illustrates based on an example the importance of consistency between the empirical measurement and the concept of variables in estimated macroeconomic models. Since standard New Keynesian models do not account for demographic trends and sectoral shifts, the authors proposes adjusting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011816344

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