The conventional wisdom about Keynes's Principle of Effective Demand is that it states something about quantities. It is widely held that the Principle determines the levels of output and employment in a world not governed by Say's Law. This paper argues that the Principle of Effective Demand...

We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020–2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative...

This paper studies the incidence of civil war over time. We put forward a canonical model of civil war, which relates the incidence of conflict to circumstances, institutions and features of the underlying economy and polity. We use this model to derive testable predictions and to interpret the...