"Indonesia's oil revenues and fuel subsidies dominate the nation's economic policy agenda. This paper estimates the …

Indonesia's oil revenues and fuel subsidies dominate the nation's economic policy agenda. This paper estimates the … on Indonesia's public finances declines as oil prices rise, because subsidies and other expenditures outgrow oil and gas …

, conventional linear models of price dynamics such as the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) can lead to erroneous inferences … about cointegration relationships, price adjustments and relative values. We propose the use of regime-switching models to … address these issues. Our regime switching model uses price data to infer whether pricing is oil-driven (integrated) or gas …

to weather, seasonality, and supply disruptions strengthen the price relationship between these two commodities. When the …