"This paper estimates the effect of higher crude-oil prices on the inflation rate in the U.S. It does so by estimating … crude oil prices. This term is inserted using a third degree polynomial distributed lag of four quarters that allows not … only for some immediate impact on the consumer price index (e.g. through gasoline prices), but also for a delayed impact as …

spot-futures spread), confirming that spot prices mean-revert and normally exceed discounted futures. However, these …. In addition, I find reversion of spot to futures prices only when backwardation is severe. Convenience yield behaves … prices only when spot prices substantially exceed futures. …

shocks. The paper establishes a relationship between oil prices, changes in the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) of the … rates and the NEER are shown to influence crude prices inversely. The results imply that crude oil prices should be included …

Factors other than changes in oil supply may cause changes in oil prices. …

, business leaders, academics, and policymakers. First, the decline in real oil prices that followed the 1970s' oil shocks is … domestic supplies in response to higher prices. The second lesson of the conference, however, is that any prediction about oil … funds has increased the volatility of oil prices. Finally, changes in oil prices still have large effects on the economy …