Richmond Fed Economist Yash P. Mehra and Research Associate Jon D. Petersen present evidence of a nonlinear relation between oil price changes and consumer spending. They assert that oil price increases have a negative effect on spending whereas oil price declines have no effect: The estimated...

Consumer sentiment may predict future household spending, either because sentiment is an independent causal force or because it foreshadows current economic conditions. The empirical evidence we present favors the second interpretation. The evidence in previous research that favors the first...

The application of cointegration and error correction methodology to estimate aggregate consumption equations relating consumer spending to labor income and household wealth shows unequivocally that wealth has significant effect on consumer spending. Still, the long-term marginal propensity to...