D'Acunto, Francesco; Weber, Michael; Yin, Xiao - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
high (low) income expectations relative to ex-post realizations after unexpected positive (negative) income shocks. These … extrapolative income expectations lead consumers to increase current spending, accumulate more debt, and face more defaults when … defaultable unsecured debt and diagnostic Kalman filtering whereby consumers over-extrapolate income shocks when forming …