The authors provide empirical evidence on the dynamic effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We distinguish between surprise and anticipated tax changes using a timing convention. We document that pre-announced but not yet implemented tax cuts give rise to contractions in output,...

Using novel scenario-based survey questions that randomize the expected duration of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Middle East conflict, we examine the causal impact of geopolitical risk on consumers' beliefs about aggregate economic conditions and their own financial outlook. Expecting a...

This paper reviews three important issues in the literature on international and intranational risk sharing. First, we establish a comprehensive set of stylized facts for consumption risk sharing within and across countries. Consistent with the findings in the literature, we find that the...

Using monthly zip-code level data on credit card transactions covering 16 U.S. cities, this paper investigates changes in consumption at local commercial places during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since using aggregate-level data can suppress valuable information on consumption...

I construct a novel measure of household uncertainty based on survey data for European countries. I show that household uncertainty shocks are not universally like negative demand shocks. Notably, household uncertainty shocks are largely inflationary in Europe. These results lend support to a...

We evaluate and partially challenge the 'household leverage' view of the Great Recession. In the data, employment and consumption declined more in states where household debt declined more. We study a model where liquidity constraints amplify the response of consumption and employment to changes...

This paper presents a descriptive analysis of the evolution of labor supply, income, and consumption inequality in Iran using the 2005-2015 waves of the survey of Household Expenditure and Income (HIES). We document that the sharp decline in income and consumption inequality after the Subsidy...

Does expected deflation lead to a fall in consumption spending? Using data for U.S. grocery store sales and department store sales from 1919 to 1939, this paper shows that expected price changes have asymmetric effects on consumption spending. Department store sales (durable consumption) react...

We study the implications of internal consumption habit for new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NKDSGE) models. Bayesian Monte Carlo methods are employed to evaluate NKDSGE model fit. Simulation experiments show that internal consumption habit often improves the ability of...