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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010478345
Using the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we provide evidence that consumers' beliefs about current and future aggregate durable expenditure predict expected returns. We rationalize this finding through an asset pricing model with recursive preferences over non-durable and durable goods and belief...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902350
premium, price-dividend ratio, and aggregate dividend and consumption growth. The model-implied risk free rate and price-dividend …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013034190
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Unconventional fiscal policy uses announcements of future increases in consumption taxes to generate inflation expectations and accelerate consumption expenditure. It is budget neutral and time consistent. We provide preliminary evidence for the effectiveness of such policies using changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315437
We propose a methodology based on multiresolution analysis to decompose a time series in components classifi ed by their level of persistence. Using this decomposition to detect the layers with diff erent degrees of persistence in consumption growth, we provide empirical evidence that some of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094118
Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a nonlinear general equilibrium model where occasionally binding collateral constraints on housing wealth drive an asymmetry in the link between housing prices and economic activity. The estimated model shows that, as collateral constraints became slack during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013003897
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This paper uses a time-varying parameter Markov switching model to measure linkages between business confidence, consumer confidence, and the state of the economy in the US and the UK. Falling business confidence significantly increases the probability that growth will subsequently fall. Rising...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014109691
In HANK, we show that fiscal policy is an appropriate macroeconomic stabilization tool at the ZLB. Fiscal policy achieves the same macroeconomic aggregates and the same welfare as hypothetically unconstrained monetary policy by replicating its transmission mechanism. Consumption taxes and labor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013221210