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Some Examples of 21st Century Philosophers Who Have Written About Keynes’s Logical Theory of Probability, but Have Skipped Part II of the A Treatise on Probability, Where Keynes Pr...
Brady, Michael Emmett - 2020
Nearly one hundred years after Keynes published his A Treatise on Probability in 1921,it appears that practically no … modern day philosopher is in any position to recognize that Keynes's work on his interval valued approach to imprecise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842021
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Keynesian Uncertainty Can Only Be Represented by Imprecise, Non Additive, Interval Valued Probability or Decision Weights Like Keynes’s C : Ordinal Probability Can’t Represent Keyn...
Brady, Michael Emmett - 2020
J M Keynes's two logical relations of rational degree of probability, α, 0≤α≤1 and Evidential Weight of the Argument, w … probability, although Keynes's theory of probability can easily deal with ordinal probability with the aid of Keynes's principle … additive interval estimate of probability or by a decision weight, like Keynes's original, path breaking innovation of his …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843351
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The Claim That the Diagram on Page 39 of Keynes’s a Treatise on Probability(1921) Represents ‘Keynes’s View of Probability’ (S. Bradley, 2019), Has No Support : It Represents a Ver...
Brady, Michael Emmett - 2020
A major error in analyzing how Keynes operationalized his logical theory of probability in 1921 is to assume that … Keynes's theoretical structure is presented by him at the end of Chapter III of the A Treatise on Probability on pp. 38 …-40, which contains a diagram on page 39 that Keynes himself characterized as being a “brief” illustration that would be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844301
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Viewing the General Theory as a Synthesis : Keynes's Unique, Theoretical Contributions in the General Theory are All Based on His A Treatise on Probability Approach to Expectations...
Brady, Michael Emmett - 2017
The Keynes-Townshend corr ... …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012953703
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Given B. De Finetti’s Conclusion that 'Probability (Objective) Does not Exist', Then Rational Expectations Does not Exist Either
Brady, Michael Emmett - 2018
Rational Expectations is an approach to probability and expectations that was initiated by Muth in 1961. Muth's concept is based on an immense muddle and confusion in his mind about subjective and objective concepts of probability that confuses subjective probability with objective probability....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908227
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Rational Expectations Has No Foundation in Any Coherent, Existing Theory of Probability
Brady, Michael Emmett - 2018
The theory of rational expectations has no foundation in any extant theory of probability. None of the five existing theories of probability (Logical, Subjective, Classical, Propensity, and Limiting (relative) Frequency) lend any support at all to the Muthian conjecture that the subjective...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910371
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J. Muth’s 1961, Econometrica Article Conception of Probability Was Inconsistent and Incoherent : There Is No Such Thing as a Hybrid Subjective-Objective Theory of Probability
Brady, Michael Emmett - 2018
expected utility without citing Von Neumann's (and Morgenstern's) theory of risk. Von Neumann, an adherent of Keynes's logical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910709