We study the long-run interaction between Germany’s economic growth trajectory and demographic aging. Using a comprehensive dataset, we leverage the classical production function approach to estimate potential output growth between 1970 and 2070. We account for the inherent uncertainty in our...

Newly available measures of GDP at the metropolitan area level now afford a more comprehensive view of regional economic activity. An analysis of upstate New York's economic performance using these measures points to below-average output growth between 2001 and 2006 along with productivity...

We propose a multivariate Bayesian state space model to identify potential growth and the output gap consistent with the dynamics of the underlying production sectors of the economy and those of inflation and the labor market. Our approach allows us to decompose economic fluctuations and...