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In diesem Diskussionspapier wird ein Modell vorgestellt, das die jeweilige gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklung in den … 50 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsproduktes des Euro-Währungsgebietes ausmachen. Das Modell berücksichtigt länderspezifische … Anpassungsprozesse bei ökonomischen Schocks. Das Modell wird mit Bayesianischen Methoden geschätzt, und Prognosen zu unterschiedlichen …
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Many macroeconometric models depict situations where the shares of the major demand aggregates in output are stable over time. The joint dynamic behavior of the considered demand aggregate and output may thus be approximated by a cointegrated vector autoregression. However, the shares of many...
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Recent research has found that macroeconomic survey forecasts of uncertainty exhibit several deficiencies, such as horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation uncertainty forecasts from the Bank of England, the Banco...
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