, subsequently, we didn't see the inflation they predicted. We show that these puzzles disappear in a Vector Autoregressive model … much of the inflation dynamics in the 2012-2014 euro area missing inflation episode. Consequently, economists and models … that excessively focused on the global nature of inflation were liable to miss the contribution of deflationary domestic …

Recent studies emphasize that survey-based inflation risk measures are informative about future inflation and thus …-frequency financial market data have predictive power for the low-frequency survey-based inflation risk indicators observed at the end of …