Die Europäische Währungsunion (EWU) soll am 1. Januar 1999 starten. Nicht auszuschließen ist, daß die Kriterien des Maastrichter Vertrags bei der Entscheidung über den Teilnehmerkreis Anfang 1998 großzügig gehandhabt werden und damit die Zahl der Teilnehmer hoch sein wird. Eine strikte...

We suggest an alternative use of disaggregate information to forecast the aggregate variable of interest, that is to include disaggregate information or disaggregate variables in the aggregate model as opposed to first forecasting the disaggregate variables separately and then aggregating those...

Pessimism related to the outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 and its development in 2020 determines the experts' predictions for the second and third quarter of 2020. The pessimistic outlook can be inferred from the downward revisions of the experts' forecasts. More downward revisions than...

There is much discussion about derivatives at central banks. The main focus is on questions about the impact of the growing use of derivative instruments on the stability of the financial markets and the effectiveness ofmonetary policy measures. Irrespective ofthe answers, the information...

We examine the relative predictive power of the sticky price monetary model, uncovered interest parity, and a transformation of the net exports variable. In addition to bringing a new approach (utilizing our measure of external imbalance suggested by Gourinchas and Rey) and data spanning a more...

To investigate the extent to which the transparency of the Bank of Canada's monetary policy has improved, the authors examine empirically - over the period 30 October 2000 to 31 May 2007 - the reaction of Canadian financial markets to official Bank communications, and in particular their...