markets. We analyze the respective forecasting accuracy and our results indicate that there exist substantial differences …

reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve … environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results … indicate that a topically oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour …

Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate … forecasting. In addition, we adopt a driftless random walk prior, so that cross-dynamics matter for forecasting only if there is …

reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat native … environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results … indicate that a topically oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour …

This paper examines financial professionals' overconfidence in their forecasting performance. We are the first to … compare individual financial professionals' self-ratings with their true forecasting performance. Data spans several years at … attitude to herd, whereas recent forecasting success comes along with more overconfidence. …

Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate … forecasting. In addition, we adopt a driftless random walk prior, so that cross-dynamics matter for forecasting only if there is … at 1-step ahead. -- Exchange rates ; Forecasting ; Bayesian VAR …

competing models. We show that the forecasting gains translate into economically and statistically significant (risk …

. While the forecasting error of the combined forecast tends to be systematically smaller than that of the individual model … Bayesian model averaging. -- forecasting ; model averaging ; Bayesian econometrics ; exchange rates …

global imbalances. -- oil price ; exchange rate ; forecasting ; multivariate time series models …