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countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and … involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand … banking in the past. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299102
countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and … involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand … banking in the past. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604624
. -- monetary policy ; ECB ; forecast ; geography ; history; heterogeneity; Taylor rule ; learning ; transmission ; survey data … countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and … involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003370562
stale projections may hamper central bank communication. In fact, interest rate uncertainty increases when the market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010340531
countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and … involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand … banking in the past. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318108
An increasing number of central banks manage market expectations via interest rate projections. Typically, those projections are updated only quarterly and thus, may become stale when new information enters the market. We use data from New Zealand to investigate the time-varying and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010354166
(FOMC) communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to predict 75 target … rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We find, first, that FOMC communication is forward-looking, with a horizon that goes … as well as a measure of unambiguous communication. Finally, our communication indicator based on FOMC speeches performs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003852257
As projections have inflation heading back toward target and the labor market continuing to improve, the Federal Reserve has begun to contemplate an increase in the federal funds rate. There is however substantial uncertainty around these projections. How should this uncertainty affect monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528289
the state of the economy and the policy outlook, but only every second decision by a published interest rate forecast. We … announcements that include an interest rate forecast lead to very similar market reactions across the yield curve as announcements … that only include written statements. We interpret our results as implying that central bank communication is important …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011926064
We introduce a novel method for estimating a monetary policy rule using macroeconomic news. Market forecasts of both economic conditions and monetary policy are affected by news, and our estimation links the two effects. This enables us to estimate directly the policy rule agents use to form...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014200927