countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and … involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand … banking in the past. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some …

countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and … involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand … banking in the past. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some …

. -- monetary policy ; ECB ; forecast ; geography ; history; heterogeneity; Taylor rule ; learning ; transmission ; survey data … countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and … involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand …

than half of the surprise and decreasing with the forecast horizon …

countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and … involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand … banking in the past. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some …

than half of the surprise and decreasing with the forecast horizon. …

stale projections may hamper central bank communication. In fact, interest rate uncertainty increases when the market …

(FOMC) communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to predict 75 target … rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We find, first, that FOMC communication is forward-looking, with a horizon that goes … as well as a measure of unambiguous communication. Finally, our communication indicator based on FOMC speeches performs …

the state of the economy and the policy outlook, but only every second decision by a published interest rate forecast. We … announcements that include an interest rate forecast lead to very similar market reactions across the yield curve as announcements … that only include written statements. We interpret our results as implying that central bank communication is important …