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/B/E/S consensus recommendations issued for U.S.-listed equities during January 2015 with realized volatility of daily security returns … to be associated with future changes in volatility, suggesting that analyst ratings can help manage portfolio risk. This … relationship appears to be asymmetric and is most pronounced among the best-rated securities which experience largest volatility …
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The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...
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while adjusting for the volatility risk premium. Relative model performance does not change during the global financial …
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