accuracy. The most accurate individual model is a VAR(1) model for real retail gasoline and Brent crude oil prices. Even …

accuracy. The most accurate individual model is a VAR(1) model for real retail gasoline and Brent crude oil prices. Even …

This paper explores a range of different forecast methods for Brent oil prices and analyses their performance relative … to oil futures and the random walk over the period 1995Q1 - 2015Q2, including periods of stable, upwardly trending and … across forecast horizons. To address this instability, we propose a forecast combination for predicting quarterly real Brent …

) forecasts based on global oil market variables tend to have lower MSPE at short horizons than forecasts based on oil futures …

forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based on oil futures prices do not allow consumers of forecasts to explore how …

.S. benchmarks such as West Texas Intermediate crude oil, but we also develop forecasting models for the price of Brent crude oil … generate the most accurate forecasts among a wide range of methods including forecasts based on oil futures prices, no …