find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … useful information. By contrast, incorporating expectations derived from financial market prices or those of firms and …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … useful information. By contrast, incorporating expectations derived from financial market prices or those of firms and …

; (iv) newer generation Phillips curve models with several timevarying features are a promising avenue for forecasting …

We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once …) into several frequency bands and forecasting separately each frequency component of inflation. The largest statistically … significant forecasting gains are achieved with a model that forecasts the lowest frequency component of inflation (corresponding …

utilization and temporary shocks, around a trend influenced by inflation expectations. We study the in-sample inflation dynamics …-sample, while inflation expectations dominate medium-to-long-run cycles, energy prices dominate short cycles and business …-to-medium cycles once expectations became anchored. While statistically significant, unemployment is not economically relevant for any …

forecasting results to results from Monte Carlo simulations of DGPs that either assume stability or allow breaks in the DGP. This …

pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …

pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …

results of the model's forecasting performance suggest that this model can be a useful analytical tool in the process of … to MAKPAM and enriches the set of tools for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in NBRM. In this paper we highlight …