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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765842
The main objective of this study is to assess the usefulness and rationality of the inflation and unemployment rate forecasts made for Romanian by three experts in forecasting: F1, F2 and F3. All the unemployment rate forecasts over the horizon 2001 - 2013 provided by all experts do not provide...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010459714
In this study a comparative analysis of the forecasts accuracy for Spain (developed country) and Romania (developing country) was developed for the crisis period (2009 - 2013). The providers are national forecasters: Bank of Spain and FUNCAS (Spanish Savings Banks Foundation) for Spain and two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011298802
We evaluate the forecasting performance of six different models for short-term forecasting of Macedonian GDP: 1) ARIMA model; 2) AR model estimated by the Kalman filter; 3) model that explains Macedonian GDP as a function of the foreign demand; 4) small structural model that links GDP components...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011623268
We analyze forecasts of consumption, nonresidential investment, residential investment, government spending, exports, imports, inventories, gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment prepared by the staff of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System for meetings of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013016929
We examine the accuracy of survey-based expectations of the Chilean exchange rate relative to the US dollar. Our out-of-sample analysis reveals that survey-based forecasts outperform the Driftless Random Walk (DRW) in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error at several forecasting horizons. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012906841
In this paper we show that the MSCI ACWI Metals and Mining Index has the ability to predict base metal prices. We use both in-sample and out-of-sample exercises to conduct such examination. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the present-value model for stock-price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226962
In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both insample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012845101
In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or chance. Although differences in performance metrics sometimes appear substantial, it is challenging to determine whether they reflect ex ante skill or other factors impacting ex...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842351
In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or chance. Although differences in performance metrics sometimes appear substantial, it is challenging to determine whether they reflect ex ante skill or other factors impacting ex...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156473