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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011421805
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010414783
whether Google Trends provides significant forecasting improvements over models without search data. Second, we assess whether … a high-frequency variable (weekly Google Trends) is more useful for accurate forecasting than a low-frequency variable …In this paper, we examine the usefulness of Google Trends data in predicting monthly tourist arrivals and overnight …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012002651
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011340986
markets. We analyze the respective forecasting accuracy and our results indicate that there exist substantial differences …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296526
reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve … environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results … indicate that a topically oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305737
reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat native … environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results … indicate that a topically oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010498976
This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014313751
data using economic variables and Google online search data. An out-of-sample forecasting comparison with forecast horizons … 2014M6. Models including Google search data statistically outperformed the competing models for most of the car brands and …-of-sample forecasts, directional accuracy, the variability of Google data and additional car brands …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013015773
This paper develops a set of time series models to provide short-term forecasts (6 to 18 months ahead) of international trade both at the global level and for selected regions. Our results compare favourably to other forecasts, notably by the International Monetary Fund, as measured by standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326691