Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús; Breitenfellner, Andreas - 2008
developments (and particularly, developments in the US dollar/euro exchange rate) may contain information about oil price changes … from the euro area and (c) alternatives to oil invoicing in US dollar are costly. We give evidence that using information … on the US dollar/euro exchange rate (and its determinants) improves oil price forecasts significantly. We discuss …