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In 2016 the Central Bank of Argentina began to announce inflation targets. In this context, providing authorities with good estimates of relevant macroeconomic variables is crucial for making pertinent corrections in order to reach the desired policy goals. This paper develops a group of models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011882797
agreed. In short, forecasting inflation is of foremost importance to households, businesses, and policymakers. In 2016, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011880436
This note documents a curious finding about the substantial forecast ability of a simple aggregator of three commodity futures prices for U.S. core inflation. The proposed aggregator reduces the out-of-sample root mean squared error for 12-month-ahead inflation forecasts of the benchmark AR(1)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011428084
This paper presents a forecasting exercise that assesses the predictive potential of a daily price index based on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011883796
models. The past decade, however, has seen considerable progress in the development of time series forecasting methods that … the problem of forecasting the growth rate of the U.S. index of industrial production with 130 predictor variables. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014023696
approaches to real-time forecasting of headline PCE inflation. We find that performance is enhanced if forecasting equations are … performance to deteriorate. Finally, we demonstrate that forecasting models estimated using the Kishor-Koenig (2012) methodology …-which mandates that each forecasting VAR be augmented with a flexible state-space model of data revisions-consistently outperform the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011567926
Forward guidance operates via the expectations formation process of the agents in the economy. In standard quantitative macroeconomic models, the expectations are unobserved state variables and little scrutiny is devoted to analysing the dynamic behaviour of these expectations. We show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241110
During the year 2016, the Central Bank of Argentina has begun to announce inflation targets. In this context, providing the authorities of good estimates of relevant macroeconomic variables turns out to be crucial to make the pertinent corrections to reach the desired policy goals. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846246
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011340986
Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study examined the predictive ability of business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473533