The air for the economic upswing in Germany is getting thinner. We expect German GDP to grow by 2.5 percent this year and by 2.3 percent in 2019 after an increase of 2.2 percent in 2017. With capacity utilization already above normal levels at the current juncture, our forecast implies that the...

The momentum of the expansion of the German economy is strong. Unchanged from our winter and spring forecasts, we expect a rise in gross domestic product by 1.7 percent in the current year and by 2 percent in 2018. This implies that throughout the forecasting period the expansion of aggregate...

In diesem Papier werden eine Reihe von Frühindikatoren für die Entwicklung der Ausrüstungs-, Wirtschaftsbau- und Wohnungsbauinvestitionen in Deutschland untersucht. Die Indikatoren werden auf Basis theoretischer Erwägungen oder wegen ihres technischen Zusammenhangs zur Investitionstätigkeit...

The economic upswing in Germany continues, although the expansion loses some steam. Compared to our summer forecast, we reduced our expectations for GDP growth by 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points in the current and next year, respectively, to 1.9 percent (2018) and 2.0 percent (2019). So for now,...

Im Sommer 2019 deutet vieles darauf hin, dass die neuerliche Verschärfung der amerikanischen Handelspolitik den Welthandel und die internationale Konjunktur schwächt. Auf chinesische Waren sollen neue Zölle erhoben werden, und der weltwirtschaftlich stark verflochtene IT-Sektor wird durch die...

In this paper we develop a small open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model - the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM) - is closely related to studies recently published...