This paper sheds light on the questions whether it is possible to generate an accurate forecast of the real price of … oil and how it can be improved using forecast combinations. For this reason, my work will investigate the out …

economic emergencies. This paper aims to forecast the short to medium-term incidence of COVID-19 epidemic through the medium of …

; Markov-switching ; Auxiliary information ; Model averaging ; Inflation forecast ; Real-time analysis … predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

predictive power of the output gap for inflation in the euro area. We find evidence of changes in trend growth around the … estimates in real time. Our measures help forecasting inflation over most of our evaluation sample (2001-2010) but fail …

inflation rates of Turkey and propose a new weighting scheme, the time-varying simple weighting method. Our guiding principle … the exhaustive literature of forecast combinations and apply our newly developed combination method to test for the … prospective credibility of the inflation-targeting regime of the central bank of the Republic of Turkey …

I apply the model with unobserved components and stochastic volatility (UC-SV) to forecast the Russian consumer price … index. I extend the model which was previously suggested as a model for inflation forecasting in the USA to take into …

distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various model selection procedures are … component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months ahead … inflation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of subindices of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as opposed to …

affected temporarily. Inflation forecasts made by Eurosystem/ECB staff perform similarly or slightly better than those from our …