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only its applicability to arbitrary continuous distributions but also the evaluation of the forecast accuracy in specific …
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on the basis of their one-step ahead forecasting performance. With regard to forecast unbiasedness and precision …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013084434
on the basis of their one-step ahead forecasting performance. With regard to forecast unbiasedness and precision …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009723920
Multidimensional Value at Risk (MVaR) generalises VaR in a natural way as the intersection of univariate VaRs. We reduce the dimensionality of MVaRs which allows for adapting the techniques and applications developed for VaR to MVaR. As an illustration, we employ VaR forecasting and evaluation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014120778
We define the Multidimensional Value at Risk (MVaR) as a natural generalization of VaR. This generalization makes a number of important applications possible. For example, many techniques developed for VaR can be applied to MVaR directly. As an illustration, we employ VaR forecasting and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871618
Patton and Timmermann (2011, 'Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds', Journal of Business & Economic … Statistics, forthcoming) propose a set of useful tests for forecast rationality or optimality under squared error loss, including …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120348
conditional volatilities and correlations, the distribution for the innovations and the method of forecast construction. We find … smaller. The differences from the model, distribution and forecast choices are also smaller compared to temporal aggregation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431503
Shortfall. A large family of scoring functions can be used to evaluate forecast performance in this context. However, little … therefore develop graphical checks (Murphy diagrams) of whether one forecast method dominates another under a relevant class of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011663466
We propose two new tests for detecting clustering in multivariate Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts. First, we consider CUSUM-tests to detect first-order instationarities in the matrix of VaR-violations. Second, we propose x<sup>2</sup>-tests for detecting cross-sectional and serial dependence in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024527