We examine whether lenders use analyst forecasts of the borrowing firm's earnings when establishing covenant thresholds in private debt contracts. We find greater proximity between the analysts' consensus earnings forecast and the future earnings performance required by the contract among...

In about 20%-30% of cases where an analyst revises two outputs (namely, earnings estimates, target prices, or stock recommendations) simultaneously, the two estimates are revised in opposite directions. Existing literature notes that these inconsistent outputs are widespread, and concludes that...

We find that the likelihood that a firm voluntarily provides an earnings forecast is sensitive to the extent to which other firms in the same geographic area provide earnings forecasts. This geographic peer effect in forecasting is stronger for firms owned by more local institutional investors,...

We extend prior research examining the relation between aggregate recommendation changes and future returns by documenting that this relation varies over time as a function of the predictability of future earnings growth. When industry-level earnings growth is more predictable, we find that...

Sell-side fundamental analyst reports are highly valued in the financial industry and include three main quantitative components: earnings forecasts, target prices, and buy/sell recommendations. An important question for investment managers is then, how accurate are the forecasts of fundamental...

We examine how economic downturns affect the value that market participants place on management earnings forecasts. We find that in downturns, news conveyed in management forecasts elicits larger stock price reactions and analyst forecast revisions, suggesting that analysts and investors place...

Recent work shows that the role of accrual accounting in mitigating the timing differences between cash flows and operating performance has been disappearing over time (Bushman, Lerman, and Zhang 2016). We argue that even though there is noise in the accrual accounting process, sophisticated...

We investigate whether firms' tax planning affects the accuracy of analysts' forecasts. Tax planning can exacerbate the complexity of firms' operations through strategic choices to exploit tax laws. Because of its effect on firms' operations, tax planning can influence analysts' efforts to...

We analyze three different mechanical models to forecast earnings and compare their forecasts with those of analysts. Moreover, we evaluate implied cost of capital (ICC) estimates that are based on these forecasts. With our analyses we answer three open questions in the literature. 1) Do model...

We investigate the determinants of analysts' target price forecasts and evaluate their relative importance for explaining the cross-sectional variation in target price implied returns. We identify four broad determinants: the informational component predictive of future stock returns, errors in...