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Bayesian Herders : Updating of Rainfall Beliefs in Response to External Climate Forecasts
Lybbert, Travis J.; Barrett, Christopher B.; McPeak, John G. - 2011
populations, provided recipients use forecast information to update climate expectations. We test whether pastoralists in southern … Ethiopia and northern Kenya update their expectations in response to forecast information. The minority of herders who received …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014182022
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Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters
Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal - 2023
Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014472058
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An investigation into the uncertainty revision process of professional forecasters
Clements, Michael P.; Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph S. - 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014375158
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Are oil price forecasters finally right? : regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price
Reitz, Stefan; Ruelke, Jan-Christoph; Stadtmann, Georg - 2009
We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations … role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal forecasters' underperformance relative to the random walk benchmark …. However, this result appears to be biased due to peso problems. -- Oil price ; survey data ; forecast bias ; peso problem …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003908342
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Do survey-based expectations mimic inflation in Nigeria?
Ibrahim, Adamu - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 6 (2015) 1, pp. 301-315
Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study examined the predictive ability of business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473533
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Noisy information and fundamental disagreement
Andrade, Philippe; Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; … - 2013
We study the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters for key macroeconomic variables. We document a novel set of facts: 1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the very long run; 2) the shape of the term structure of disagreement differs markedly across variables:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010222893
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Expectations Data and the Predictive Value of Interim Reporting
Abdel-Khalik, A. Rashad - 2014
This paper provides an adaptive model depicting the interaction between the disclosure of interim earnings and the accuracy of earnings forecasts that are made public by security analysts. Our results indicate that accuracy of annual earnings forecasts is highly correlated with the announcement...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053017
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Optimal foresight
Chahrour, Ryan; Jurado, Kyle - 2020
Agents have foresight when they receive information about a random process above and beyond the information contained in its current and past history. In this paper, we propose an information-theoretic measure of the quantity of foresight in an information structure, and show how to separate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012606997
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Noise in Expectations : Evidence from Analyst Forecasts
de Silva, Tim; Thesmar, David - 2021
This paper quantifies the amount of noise and bias in analysts' forecast of corporate earnings at various horizons. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243297
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Updating great expectations : the effect of peer salary information on own-earnings forecasts
Jones, Sam; Santos, Ricardo - 2020
How jobseekers set their earnings expectations is central to job search models. To study this process, we track the evolution of own-earnings forecasts over 18 months for a representative panel of university-leavers in Mozambique and estimate the impact of a wage information intervention. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012301814