In this paper I assess the ability of econometric and machine learning techniques to predict fiscal crises out of sample. I show that the econometric approaches used in many policy applications cannot outperform a simple heuristic rule of thumb. Machine learning techniques (elastic net, random...

Generating Cyber Intelligence (CYBINT) scenarios & solutions to address uncertainty for decision-advantage: Using Intelligence Engineering & Strategic Options Analysis -- A Macro Cyber Scenario Case Study using Intelligence Engineering & Strategic Options Analysis Methods -- Examining the...