The U.S. Subprime Crisis and the subsequent Great Recession have highlighted a renewed interest in the proper design and implementation of Early Warning Systems (E.W.S.), in order to help deter the onset of subsequent extreme financial events, through the implementation of adequate crisis...

In this paper, an issue of major policy significance pertaining to assessing the impact of COVID-19 beyond the short-term on India’s macroeconomy has been addressed by developing two restricted vector autoregression (VAR) models. These models enable an assessment of the detrimental impact of...

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

Abstract in Russian:В настоящем исследовании для определения ненаблюдаемых переменных разработаны полуструктурные макроэкономические модели для каждой страны региона...

The implementation of any State’s economic policy involves first developing short-term, mid-term and long-term forecasts, as well as socio-economic development programs. Their quality is largely dependent on credible assessments of the current economic setting, whose findings will then inform...

Following the winter recession and stagnation in the second quarter of 2023, the economic upswing is proceeding at a sluggish pace, contrary to expectations over the summer. Weak foreign demand and ongoing inflation have proven to be slowing economic growth. For the time being, private...