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Patterns of Current Account Adjustment - Insights from Past Experience
Algieri, Bernardina; Bracke, Thierry - 2021
The paper examines episodes of current account adjustment in individual economies. A central finding is that these episodes are very divergent and can be usefully classified, on the basis of cluster analysis, in three groups. A majority of cases is characterised by internal adjustment,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317000
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Patterns of Current Account Adjustment - Insights from Past Experience
Algieri, Bernardina; Bracke, Thierry - 2021
The paper examines over seventy episodes of current account adjustment in industrial and major emerging market economies. It argues that these episodes were characterised by strongly divergent economic developments. To reduce this divergence, the paper classifies episodes with similar...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317052
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Patterns of current account adjustment: insights from past experience
Algieri, Bernardina; Bracke, Thierry - 2007
The paper examines over seventy episodes of current account adjustment in industrial and major emerging market economies. It argues that these episodes were characterised by strongly divergent economic developments. To reduce this divergence, the paper classifies episodes with similar...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604808
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Patterns of current account adjustment: insights from past experience
Algieri, Bernardina; Bracke, Thierry - 2007
The paper examines episodes of current account adjustment in individual economies. A central finding is that these episodes are very divergent and can be usefully classified, on the basis of cluster analysis, in three groups. A majority of cases is characterised by internal adjustment,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264156
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Forecasting Macedonian business cycle turning points using Qual VAR model
Petrovska, Magdalena; Krstevska, Aneta; Naumovski, Nikola - Narodna Banka na Republika Makedonija - 2016
This paper aims to assess the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we … indicators performs in forecasting turning points of the Macedonian business cycle by employing the Qual VAR approach of Dueker … (2005). In continuation, we evaluate the quality of the selected indicators in pseudo-out-of-sample context. The results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011623919
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Do leading indicators help to predict business cycle turning points in Germany?
Fritsche, Ulrich; Kouzine, Vladimir - 2002
the interest rate spread, the long-term interest rate as well as some monetary indicators and some survey indicators can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011437017
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What a difference a day makes : on the common market microstructure of trading days
Gerhard, Frank; Hess, Dieter; Pohlmeier, Winfried - 1998
This paper analyzes the interday stability of the price process using transaction data. While the vast majority of empirical studies on the microstructure of financial markets rests on the tacit assumption that observed prices are generated by a time-invariant price process, we question this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011543817
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Do leading indicators help to predict business cycle turning points in Germany?
Fritsche, Ulrich; Kouzine, Vladimir - 2002
the interest rate spread, the long-term interest rate as well as some monetary indicators and some survey indicators can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260642
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A Discrete Time Series Model for High Frequency Financial Data
Mitchell, Heather Eunice - 2012
In this paper a flexible model for correlation in high frequency data is proposed, which maintains the data's discrete nature and captures features such as asymmetry and excess zeros. The model uses an a theoretical approach based on that of an ARIMA model. This model works with price changes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104300
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Do recessions occur concurrently across countries? : a multinomial logistic approach
Poon, Aubrey; Zhu, Dan - 2022
We develop a novel multinomial logistic model to detect and forecast concurrent recessions across multi-countries. The key advantage of our proposed framework is that we can detect recessions across countries using the additional informational content from the cross-country panel feature of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013365832