Researchers who study crime and justice have been forecasting a variety of outcomes for nearly a century. Perhaps the most well known are forecasts of behavior after release from prison. Other examples include forecasts of prison populations and time trends in crime. However, it is very...

Large-scale disasters regularly affect societies over the globe, causing large destruction and damage. After each of these events, media, insurance companies, and international institutions publish numerous assessments of the “cost of the disaster.” However these assessments are based on...